These numbers show a large rise in employment. This was combined with a rise in unemployment with economic inactivity falling very substantially as the robust state of the labour market encouraged individuals to enter the labour market and find work. The current state of the labour market will be very different. Our own research suggests that around five years of employment growth were wiped out in the first month of the crisis, and that the unemployment rate had reached 6% by the end of March compared to the 4% reported today by the ONS. The three-month January to March 2020 figures for vacancies released today by ONS, show some of the impact of the pandemic as they are down after three months of rises. The single month vacancy numbers for March show an impact even more strongly with total vacancies down by 10 percent compared to March 2019. Accommodation and hospitality, one of the sectors most affected by the lockdown measures, showed an annual fall in vacancy levels of 30 percent. Research by the Institute for Employment Studies estimates that job vacancies fell by 42 percent between mid-March and mid-April 2020. Unemployment is likely to rise further. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released an economic scenario last week which suggests that economic output could fall by 35 percent in the second quarter of this year with unemployment rising to 10 percent or 3.4 million in the quarter. This scenario assumes a three-month lockdown followed by three months when the lockdown measures are partially lifted. The scenario assumes a very rapid economic bounce back with GDP regaining its pre-outbreak level by the end of this year. As a consequence, the OBR envisage the unemployment rate falling rapidly to 7.0 percent by the end of this year and 5.5 percent by the end of 2021. The consensus amongst independent economic forecasters is very similar on unemployment to this OBR scenario. The average of new forecasts released this month projected the unemployment rate at 6.9 percent at the end of 2020 and 5.5 percent at the end of 2021. The Resolution Foundation released its own set of economic scenarios last week based on the lockdown lasting three, six or twelve months. The results of the three-month scenario are similar to the OBR, but the six and twelve month scenarios show unemployment averaging almost 5 million (14.1 percent) and over 7 million (20.8 percent) in 2021 respectively. In my view the rapid bounce back in the economy and unemployment levels, envisaged in the OBR scenario is overly optimistic. The history of economic recessions is one of prolonged reductions in economic activity not the rapid rebound assumed by the OBR. Furthermore, the recovery in unemployment levels is likely to lag that of output. The initial needs of rising production are likely to be met by formerly furloughed workers and not by hiring unemployed people. The Great Recession of 2008-09 engendered a much lower rise in unemployment than had been expected on the basis of previous UK recessions. However, even in this case it took over seven years for the unemployment rate to return to its pre-crisis levels. The OBR scenario envisages this happening in three to four years. A protracted period of high unemployment for the next few years is likely. This requires an ambitious policy response that addresses the five major challenges we identified in our recent report ; avoiding a ‘pandemic generation’ of young people with poorer education and employment prospects, utilising the skills and expertise of those out of work or furloughed, preventing short-term unemployment turning into long term unemployment, planning for how to safely withdraw the temporary supports the government has introduced, and learning the lessons from this crisis for the future.