The labour market looks to be continuing to ease with vacancies falling again and below pre-pandemic levels and payroll employment down too. Sectors like retail and hospitality seem harder hit than others, seeing the largest falls in employment of 174,000 combined, but also the highest pay growth as minimum wage rises kick in. But the data remain uncertain: for example, last month’s 109,000 fall in payroll employment has been revised to a 25,000 fall. Achieving the Government's 80% employment rate target will require a growing economy and a plan to help two million more people in work.

Although economic inactivity continues to fall, there are signs that a rising proportion of those returning to the labour market are looking for work, rather than entering employment. This is unsurprising given the continuing downward trend in vacancies. It is particularly important that the Youth Guarantee delivers the education and career support young people need to avoid the long-term scaring effects of unemployment, given the large numbers of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment or full-time education at present.